By Jan Lopatka
PRAGUE (Reuters) -Billionaire Andrej Babis is widely expected to return to power in a Czech election next month, in a boost to the populist, anti-immigration camp within the European Union that could weaken backing for Ukraine's defence against Russia.
Having parted with liberal EU allies since his last term as prime minister in 2017-2021, Babis has labelled himself "Trumpist" and founded the Patriots for Europe in European Parliament (EP) with Hungary's fellow eurosceptic Viktor Orban and several far-right parties.
His ANO party leads opinion polls comfortably and is on route to win most votes, although not a majority, in the October 3-4 election.
A win for the 71-year-old businessman would mirror the rise of populists across Europe and may embolden similar voices in other member states, adding to centrifugal tendencies in European politics.
"There will be a shift in the distribution of power...and common decisions in multiple concrete policies such as defence, migration, and economy will be even harder to reach," said Vladimir Bilcik, senior fellow at Globsec think tank and former Slovak member of the European Parliament.
Babis, who has built an empire of farming, food processing and chemicals firms that make him one of the nation's richest men, will bring Czechs closer to Orban and populist Slovak leader Robert Fico.
"We saw already in previous years that he was more and more inclined towards Orban. This will become even stronger," said Viktor Danek, executive deputy director at Europeum think tank.
He forecast that Babis would clash with the Commission on climate and migration, and be ready to join Orban and Fico in blocking some decisions.
On Ukraine, though not as pro-Russian as Orban and Fico, Babis will likely break from the current government which was among the first to send military aid and set up the "Czech initiative" to supply Western-funded artillery ammunition.
Babis wants to end the ammunition scheme.
He has also sniped at costs of helping Ukrainian refugees and said last year, in the context of farming competition, that he hoped Ukraine would not join the EU.
ANO abstained in some European Parliament votes on Ukraine, including one this month calling for quick start of concrete EU entry talks.
COALITION CONSIDERATIONS
Analysts say ANO is not likely to block Kyiv's EU entry process or sanctions, but concrete decisions will depend on which parties are picked to join or support an anticipated ANO-led cabinet.
The biggest pressure would come from the pro-Russian far-right SPD and far-left Stacilo! which both call for quitting the NATO military alliance and EU bloc.
"The far left or far right, they would like to revise Czech foreign policy and its fundamentals," said Association for International Affairs (AMO) think tank director Vit Dostal.
"There is a question whether Babis would let them do so - it is not in his interest to break relations with West European partners."
ANO has ruled out any steps toward EU and NATO exit, but Babis has rejected raising defence budgets in line with NATO's new targets.
Babis says he will not implement the EU's system of emission allowances for households, even if that triggers legal action by Brussels, and will try to scrap the Green Deal for decarbonisation altogether.
ANO refuses to implement the EU's migration pact, which has become a symbolic target for the Czech opposition although it will not oblige Czechs to accept asylum seekers.
Another flashpoint could be ANO's plan to bring public media, which he claims is biased, under state budget funding, cancelling users' fees. Critics see this as a red flag for media independence.
Any policy change will be smaller if Babis agrees a government with a part of the current centre-right coalition or the liberal Pirates. ANO and those parties exclude this, at least for now due to sharply antagonistic relations between the two blocs during campaigning.
Babis' willingness to pick a battle with Brussels may be tempered by the need for European subsidies in the coffers, and he may lose a major ally if Orban is defeated in a Hungarian election in April.
"We may win one illiberal and lose another," said a European official, who asked not to be named. "And Babis may well be focusing most on his wallet and less on doctrine."
(Reporting by Jan Lopatka, additonal reporting by Lili Bayer in Brussels; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)
