By Angelo Amante and Crispian Balmer
ROME (Reuters) -Key wins for Italy's opposition in southern regional elections show cracks in the ruling conservative bloc's dominance, raising doubts over Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's ability to secure a second term in the next national vote, say political observers.
This year's regional elections across Italy ended in a 3-3 draw between the two main political camps, but convincing wins for centre-left parties in Campania and Puglia gave them hope they could prevent Meloni from winning outright victory in 2027.
"For months now, we have been hearing the same tired refrain: Giorgia Meloni has no rivals, she is invincible, there is no alternative to her. The results in Campania and Puglia ... show that there is an alternative," centrist senator and former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi wrote on social media platform X.
While Meloni's coalition - including her Brothers of Italy party, Forza Italia and the far-right League - leads rivals in national polls, its grip on power could loosen if centre-left parties replicate their regional alliances at a national level.
SOUTHERN VOTES PROVE CRUCIAL
Meloni and her allies took power with ease in 2022, mainly because the top two parties in the centre-left - the mainstream Democratic Party and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement - failed to form a pre-ballot alliance, dividing opposition support in a number of key first-past-the-post races.
This proved especially costly in the Senate upper house, where right-wing parties, working in lockstep, managed to win 120 out of the 200 seats up for grabs, with support especially focused in the wealthy north.
Italian prime ministers need a majority in both houses of parliament to govern, which is why the southern vote is vital.
Lorenzo Pregliasco, from the polling firm YouTrend, said a centre-left alliance at national level could spell trouble for Meloni's coalition.
"There are around 20 swing constituencies in the centre-south that are currently in (conservative) hands. If they lose them, that means a potential hung parliament," he said.
RULING BLOC MULLS LAW CHANGES
Facing this prospect, the ruling coalition might now seek to revise the electoral law, say politicians and analysts.
Under the current system, most lawmakers are chosen by proportional representation, but 36% are elected on a first-past-the-post basis - the real risk for Meloni.
Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, head of Forza Italia, has already suggested scrapping first-past-the-post constituencies in favour of an all-proportional system.
Giovanni Donzelli, a senior Brothers of Italy lawmaker, told daily Corriere della Sera on Tuesday that under the current system neither bloc might win the next election.
"The opposition would be happy with that, because they would be ready to form a (broad) government involving everyone, but we wouldn't. We want whoever wins to be able to govern for five years," he said.
MUTUAL HOSTILITY
Although Meloni's government has failed to deliver many of the hard-hitting reforms Italy needs, investors have welcomed an era of relative political stability, securing a string of upgrades from rating agencies.
Her Brothers of Italy party tops the polls with backing of more than 30%, well ahead of the PD and 5-Star. But with Meloni's allies, the League and Forza Italia, stuck below 10%, her popularity might not be enough.
Opposition ranks, ranging from hard-left, anti-capitalist groups to moderate, pro-business centrists have found it harder to unite, however.
Analysts say the challenge for the opposition is to bring their voters together behind a single, national project, after years of mutual hostility.
"The centre-left alliance has to persuade its own electors to vote for it," said Rado Fonda, from polling firm SWG.
Their first opportunity to present a united front will be a referendum slated for spring 2026 on a highly contested justice reform championed by Meloni. Defeat in the vote could leave the prime minister looking suddenly vulnerable.
"The justice reform could be a turning point for her," said YouTrend's Pregliasco. "She's broadly seen as a winner, but if she loses the referendum, I think her reputation could be damaged."
(Editing by Ros Russell)
