By Devjyot Ghoshal and Panarat Thepgumpanat
BANGKOK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul looks set to tap burgeoning nationalism over a border conflict with Cambodia to boost his appeal in a general election stemming from his dissolution of parliament after less than 100 days in power.
The political manoeuvering came after fierce border clashes erupted again this week, following five days of fighting in July, hurling Southeast Asia's second largest economy immediately into election mode.
The election is likely by early February, as polls must follow within 45 to 60 days of the dissolution, but no party is expected to secure a clear majority, which analysts warned could prompt more horse-trading and tumult.
A key reason for dissolving parliament is an escalation of nationalism from the border clashes that stands to benefit Anutin's Bhumjaithai party, said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a professor of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.
"This is one of the main motivations because it is good timing," he said.
Provinces in northeastern Thailand, some near the fighting, are a rich vote bank for Bhumjaithai, while Anutin also has strong allies to deliver constituencies from other regions riding on the wave of patriotism.
In September, 27% of respondents in a nationwide poll said they were undecided on a prime ministerial candidate, while 23% backed the leader of the People's Party, now the largest bloc in parliament, and 20% supported Anutin.
With the border issue front and centre in voters' minds, prevailing public sentiment should fuel Anutin's popularity, said Stithorn Thananithichot, who teaches political science at Chulalongkorn University.
"If Bhumjaithai wins the election, a new government should be formed by April," he said.
Anutin has been unequivocal in his backing of the military, which most Thais overwhelmingly trust over politicians in securing the country's national interest.
PHEU THAI AND PEOPLE'S PARTY
The opposition People's Party backed Anutin, 59, to take power in September after he walked out of a ruling coalition led by the Pheu Thai party.
In a deal with the People's Party, he agreed to push for constitutional amendments sought by the opposition group and call for elections within four months of taking office.
The arrangement fell through on Thursday, with the People's Party accusing Anutin of reneging on their pact, a charge the prime minister denies.
Ousted by Anutin, Pheu Thai is also licking its wounds after its main backer, billionaire ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, was jailed in September, and faces flak for his clan's close links with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen.
"In the public mind, the border conflict is partly attributable to whatever is going on between the two families," said Napon Jatusripitak of the Bangkok-based Thailand Future think-tank.
The successor of an opposition group blocked from power by military-appointed senators despite winning the last election in 2023, the People's Party has little to gain from the surge in nationalism because of its political ideology, he added.
"So really, it's only basically Bhumjaithai out of the big ones that stands to benefit," Napon said.
The positions of both Pheu Thai and People's Party reflect a decades-long struggle between populist political outfits and the conservative-royalist elite, which has triggered street protests, occasional bouts of violence and coups.
Anutin and his Bhumjaithai, on the other hand, are seen as backed by parts of the Thai establishment.
SPECTRE OF MORE INSTABILITY
Thailand's third prime minister since August 2023, Anutin launched stimulus measures in an economy struggling with household debt, weak consumption and a strong currency.
But the shrewd political operator has also faced criticism on issues such as fighting catastrophic southern floods last month.
Even a patriotic boost may not translate into a clear majority for Anutin in the upcoming poll, however, which could bring more political instability, analysts said.
The conservative establishment may still seek to suppress the People's Party, allowing another coalition to take shape, said Titipol, pointing to Bhumjaithai's 2023 backing for Pheu Thai's bid to take power.
"I don't think we can rule out the possibility of a reunion between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai," he said.
(Additional reporting by Orathai Sriring; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
