By Tim Kelly
TOKYO (Reuters) -Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's new hardline coalition partner unshackles her security ambitions and gives U.S. President Donald Trump room to press for military spending, but her fragile government may put a brake on what she can do.
An admirer of conservative British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Takaichi was sworn in on Tuesday as head of a government that is two votes shy of a majority in the decision-making 465-seat lower house.
"She is conservative, wants to increase defence spending, and has styled herself the Japan First candidate," said Michael Green, a professor and head of the United States Studies Centre in Australia.
"If she has a vulnerability with Trump, it is her relative weakness at home," the former senior official of the U.S. National Security Council added.
Takaichi has only a few days to prepare for her first face-to-face talks with Trump since becoming Japan's first female prime minister.
The two may cross paths at the ASEAN regional bloc summit in Malaysia on Sunday, before holding formal talks in Tokyo early next week.
"She certainly will be experiencing a baptism of fire on the diplomatic front," a senior U.S. diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity, as he was not authorised to speak publicly.
UNSHACKLED BY MOVE TO PARTNER ISHIN
A follower of assassinated Japanese premier and Trump confidant Shinzo Abe, Takaichi ended the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s 26-year coalition with the pacifist-leaning Komeito, replacing it with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin.
"Komeito always served as a brake and now you have two coalition partners that are pretty much aligned," said Jeffrey Hornung, an expert on Japanese security policy at the RAND Corporation.
The shift frees Takaichi to push Abe-era security reforms further.
Like her, Ishin wants to revise Japan's pacifist constitution, strengthen the military to deter China and loosen restrictions on arms exports.
Ishin has even floated a U.S.-style nuclear-sharing deal that would give Tokyo a say over any U.S. weapons deployed in Japan.
That would be a radical departure from Japan's long-held three non-nuclear principles of not developing, deploying or hosting such weapons.
On Friday, Takaichi told parliament she plans to accelerate Japan's largest military buildup since World War Two, bringing forward by two years the goal of doubling defence spending to 2% of GDP, aiming for the March 31 end of the current fiscal year.
"Japan must take the initiative in fundamentally strengthening its defence capabilities," she added.
She has also said a "contingency" in Taiwan, which Beijing says must eventually be reunited with the mainland, would be a crisis for both Japan and the United States.
"Managing relations with China will be a major hurdle for her," said Kenji Minemura, a senior research fellow at the Canon Institute for Global Studies. "The loss of Komeito, which maintained ties with Beijing, is another setback."
China's response to Takaichi, a frequent visitor to the Yasukuni war shrine that Beijing views a symbol of past militarism, showed concern about Japan's commitment to peace and self-defence.
"We urge Japan to reflect on its history of aggression, adhere to the path of peace, and exercise caution in its words and deeds in the field of military and security," its foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, told a news briefing.
The meeting with Trump offers Takaichi a chance to outline her regional security goals before his summit next week with Chinese leader Xi Jinping ahead of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering in South Korea.
For now, she appears to enjoy broad public support in Japan, with 64% of 1,053 respondents approving of the new government in a poll by Kyodo News.
RELIANCE ON OPPOSITION PARTIES FOR SUPPORT
However, her political weakness in parliament will limit how much she can promise Trump on defence spending, said Tokyo University professor Ryo Sahashi.
"Speeding up the buildup was always on the cards, but the real issue is the budget," he said. "It's doubtful a government with such a weak footing can decide to jump to 3%."
While Takaichi won enough votes to become prime minister, her bloc will still have to shop around for opposition support to pass key bills, a challenge Abe never faced.
"If Trump pushes her for a specific number, it could cause early friction," said Hornung. "It wouldn't surprise me if he says, you’re an ally, you need to do 3%, even 5%."
To win Trump's favour, which could bolster her domestic standing, Takaichi plans instead to present a package of U.S. purchases, from Ford F-150 pickup trucks and soybeans to natural gas and a list of potential U.S. investments, sources told Reuters.
While Takaichi and the LDP will miss the presence of Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, his widow Akie will meet Trump. Takaichi's officials may even take him to a golf course where he and Abe played during his last visit in 2019, media said.
(Reporting by Tim Kelly, Kentaro Okasaka and Tamiyuki Kihara; Additional reporting by Mei Mei Chu in Beijing; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)
