By Elizabeth Pineau and Michel Rose
PARIS, July 2 (Reuters) - French far-right leader Marine Le Pen faces a make-or-break court ruling on July 7 on her bid to overturn an election ban, a verdict that could knock her out of the 2027 presidential race or clear the way for her to seek the top job for a fourth time.
France’s political class is anxiously awaiting the appeal ruling, which will determine whether Le Pen, 57, or her protégé Jordan Bardella, 30, carries the far-right banner into an election less than a year away, with their anti-immigration National Rally (RN) still riding high in the polls.
A French court in March 2025 handed Le Pen a five-year ban from public office and a four-year jail sentence for embezzling funds from the European Parliament, pending appeal, in a seismic verdict that reverberated beyond France and drew harsh words from U.S. President Donald Trump and other right-wing leaders.
With the RN closer than ever to winning power in France, the European Union's second-biggest economy, party leaders have been forced to contend with unexpectedly-early succession planning, and its impact on policy lines.
Asked during a foreign trip last month if he was readying to be the RN's presidential candidate, Bardella delivered his stock response: "I am until further notice preparing to be (Le Pen's) prime minister."
But the mood among Le Pen's troops in parliament is nervous.
Even if the party has a plan B in Bardella, many lawmakers who joined under the leadership of Le Pen, who transformed it from a fringe nationalist movement to the single biggest party in parliament, said they would mourn the loss of a towering figure if she was definitively barred.
"You can never be totally prepared. It would be a kind of personal grief if it happened," RN lawmaker Thomas Ménagé told reporters. "However unfair the verdict is, we'll accept the decision, we're not revolutionaries," he added.
LE PEN VS BARDELLA
Bardella's meteoric ascent to party chief, and now potential presidential contender, has fuelled internal tensions over the RN's direction, notably on economic policy, party sources say.
Bardella, who earlier this year recruited a personal adviser from an investment fund controlled by libertarian billionaire Pierre-Edouard Stérin, advocates a more free-market line than Le Pen. He has voiced his own ideas for pension reform, raising questions among some party insiders over how far a Bardella manifesto might deviate from Le Pen's hard-fought platform.
Senior party officials describe a unified leadership. One said there had been "no hostilities" at a June 12 meeting between Le Pen, Bardella and their close aides to strategise on what happens after July 7.
"Whether it's one or the other, neither is going to pack a bag and hit the (campaign) road on their own. They will be a team," said senior RN lawmaker Laurent Jacobelli.
Opponents say Bardella's relative lack of experience compared with the battle-hardened Le Pen will come under closer scrutiny if he becomes the party's presidential candidate.
His ascent has not been without missteps, analysts say.
Bardella has been forced to answer media questions on how his romance with a princess, Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies, might be perceived by the blue-collar voters the party courts. Pictures of him in the stands at the Monaco Grand Prix on the day of a protest against the killing of a young girl drew private rebukes from party officials close to Le Pen.
POLLS CONFIRM THE RN'S FRONTUNNER STATUS
Opinion polls project both Le Pen and Bardella comfortably winning the first round of the 2027 election to reach a run-off vote. An Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI and Le Figaro showed him outperforming Le Pen, with up to 37% of voting intentions compared to her 32%.
"This dissociation between the two is a real turning point," IFOP's Frederic Dabi said on LCI TV, adding that Bardella was scoring more favourably among private-sector workers, business owners and voters aged 50 to 64.
Polls also show Bardella would win a second-round runoff more easily against a left-wing candidate than a centrist rival.
Le Pen's initial strategy of rallying public outrage over her conviction and accusing the judiciary of political bias fell flat. A majority of voters dismiss those claims, with even RN supporters saying she is not above the law.
(Writing by Michel Rose; editing by Richard Lough and Gareth Jones)
