By Chris Mfula
LUSAKA, July 9 (Reuters) - Zambia is gearing up for an August election in which President Hakainde Hichilema is favoured to win a second term but may face a strong challenge from opposition leader Brian Mundubile.
The vote is shaping up as a referendum on Hichilema's economic record since he took office in 2021, inheriting a country reeling from a sovereign debt default.
Africa's second-largest copper producer has enjoyed an economic rebound supported by high copper prices after restructuring its debt, but many people still feel squeezed by the cost of living, which the opposition will aim to exploit.
Annual inflation slowed to 6.5% in June, its lowest level in more than eight years, underscoring Zambia's economic recovery after its debt crisis, though many households still say they are struggling.
"A lot of our families still need support beyond what we are delivering today, but I want you to know we hear you," Hichilema told supporters at his campaign launch in the capital Lusaka.
CRITICS FLAG GROWING REPRESSION
The 64-year-old businessman won by a landslide in 2021 when he unseated the late former president Edgar Lungu.
Mundubile, a 55-year-old lawyer and member of parliament before the election was called, has never run for president before and emerged as a late contender after a fractured opposition rallied behind him.
Although Zambia has a history of democratic transitions, the opposition has accused Hichilema of restricting its ability to campaign and suppressing political dissent, charges he denies.
Zambia introduced a new cyber crimes law in 2025 which civil society groups say is vaguely worded and could make people afraid of speaking out online.
Hichilema also signed constitutional changes into law in December that will expand parliament, a move critics say could favour his party.
"Any dissenting voice is regarded as an enemy of the state, so it's been very difficult for the opposition to engage their members," Mundubile told Reuters in an interview, adding that opposition meetings had been disrupted by police.
HICHILEMA LEANS ON ECONOMIC INDICATORS
A survey by the Zambia Election Research Network late last year found 51% of respondents expected a free and fair election and 55% planned to vote for Hichilema, although it was conducted before Mundubile launched his campaign.
"While the opposition started late to mobilise and organise, they should not be dismissed," said Lee Habasonda, a political science lecturer at the University of Zambia.
Hichilema has the advantage of incumbency, including access to state resources and aircraft, while opponents travel by road across a country three times the size of the United Kingdom.
He is also campaigning against a backdrop of improved economic indicators. The International Monetary Fund projects Zambia's economy to grow 4.3% this year from 3.8% last year, and foreign investment has picked up.
But Mundubile says the government's economic achievements have done little to improve the lives of ordinary Zambians.
"How can you boast that you have built $6.5 billion in foreign reserves when your people are going hungry?" he said at a rally last month.
(Reporting by Chris Mfula; Additional reporting and writing by Nellie Peyton; Editing by Bate Felix and Michael Perry)
