By Maria Cheng
OTTAWA, April 13 (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/mark-carney-crisis-fighting-central-banker-lead-canada-through-us-trade-war-2025-04-29/is likely to secure a parliamentary majority for his Liberal government https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadians-vote-election-dominated-by-concerns-about-trump-2025-04-28/Monday, a win that would give him the ability to push through the legislative agenda he says is needed in an increasingly uncertain and divided https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trumps-rhetoric-rallies-canadian-support-prime-minister-mark-carney-2026-01-22/ geopolitical world.
Three special elections are being held Monday in Ontario and Quebec, with two in districts - known as ridings - that have long voted Liberal. Winning just one of those seats will give Carney a majority. Polls show they are expected to pick up at least two.
Carney has said that would help him deal more effectively with the trade war with the U.S. started by President Donald Trump. Carney’s Liberals currently have 171 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.
With a parliamentary majority, Carney will have a freer hand to govern - and solidify his grip on leading Canada until at least 2029, when national elections are due to be held next.
“He will be able to pass legislation without having to go to the opposition to secure enough votes,” said Andrew McDougall, assistant professor in Canadian politics at the University of Toronto. The Liberals have relied on selective support from the Conservatives to pass economic and trade-related legislation in the last year.
McDougall said a majority government would also allow Carney to decide the timing of the next election. Minority governments are at risk of a snap election if they lose a confidence motion and typically last less than two years.
After five opposition legislators https://www.reuters.com/world/carney-says-conservative-mp-has-joined-ruling-liberals-2026-02-18/ in five months defected to Carney’s Liberals, he should also have a slightly more comfortable margin than a single seat. Only the governments led by John A. Macdonald, Canada's first prime minister, and Jean Chretien have seen more politicians defect to the ruling party.
'LARGE LIBERAL TENT'
On Wednesday, longtime Conservative politician Marilyn Gladu https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-pm-carney-verge-majority-after-opposition-member-joins-ruling-liberals-2026-04-08/switched parties to join Carney’s government, saying Canada needs “a serious leader who can address the uncertainty that has arrived due to the unjustified American tariffs.”
Gladu, a former chemical engineer who has previously drawn criticism for promoting unproven scientific treatments during the COVID-19 pandemic, opposing a ban on conversion therapy and suggesting the military be used to end Indigenous-led protests against oil pipelines, thanked Carney for inviting her into “the large Liberal tent.”
Carney said Thursday that the core values of the Liberal Party, like inclusivity, diversity, and safeguarding protections within Canada's Charter of Rights and Freedoms, have not changed and that being part of the government caucus means supporting those principles.
Yves-Francois Blanchet, leader of the separatist Bloc Quebecois party, however, said “the ideological differences between the Liberals and Conservatives are getting thinner and thinner by the minute.”
The Bloc Quebecois is in an extremely tight race with the Liberals in Terrebonne, Quebec. The Liberals won it by just one vote in the last federal election, but the result was overturned by Canada's Supreme Court because of a misprint on a voter's envelope.
The two other seats are in Ontario, including one vacated by former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and another previously held by former Liberal lawmaker Bill Blair, who resigned after he was appointed ambassador to the United Kingdom. The Liberals are expected to hold both seats.
“What we’re seeing right now is a change of focus for the Liberal party,” said Laura Stephenson, chair of the political science department at the University of Western Ontario.
She said that while Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, shifted the party to the left and prioritized issues like reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, rights for minority groups and immigration, there are more pressing matters for Carney, who has been a more centrist leader.
“He is focused on helping Canada survive the economic turmoil, not remaking society,” she said. “When we’re in tough times like this, there are different calculations being made.”
Recent polling from Nanos shows more than half of Canadians prefer Carney as their prime minister, with just 23% picking Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Before Carney became leader of the Liberal Party last year, Poilievre had been projected to win the next election by more than 20 points.
“Carney has done a fairly good job showing Canadians he can handle Trump,” said McDougall of the University of Toronto. “He’s shown Canadians he’s a competent manager of the economy and the country,” he said. “And so far Canadians have not been overly impressed by the alternatives.”
(Reporting by Maria Cheng; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Deepa Babington)
