By Nathan Layne and Nandita Bose
DALLAS, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Republicans gathering in Dallas this week will celebrate President Donald Trump and rally support ahead of U.S. midterm elections, but a disappointing showing in the November 3 vote could sharpen an already simmering debate over who comes next and what will become of the party he transformed.
Few figures are more central to that discussion than Vice President JD Vance, whose keynote address on Thursday could serve as an early audition for 2028 and offer clues about how he would lead a party reshaped by Trump.
With Trump constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, Republicans interviewed by Reuters said the question is which elements of Trumpism should endure, with divisions emerging over tariffs, foreign intervention and the scope of his populist agenda.
It is a pivotal moment for Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. While he remains the party's dominant figure, the midterms could leave Republicans with diminished power in Washington, fueling discussions over his heir apparent and party policies after he leaves office in 2029.
At an event informally dubbed “Trumpapalooza,” little is likely to be said publicly about moving beyond Trump. But party officials said they expect the issue will surface in behind-the-scenes conversations among donors, strategists and lawmakers -- and provide a backdrop to Vance’s speech.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, widely seen as Vance’s leading rival for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, is not scheduled to speak.
'CONVERSATIONS ARE ABSOLUTELY HAPPENING'
Amy Kremer, a Republican National Committeewoman from Georgia, said discussions about the party's future have been under way for months. But, while the Iran war has unsettled some Trump supporters, she expects Trump's influence to be enduring.
"Those conversations are absolutely happening. I mean, they've been happening for a while now amongst the base, because people are divided, and we have a very deep bench," Kremer said in an interview after arriving in Dallas. "MAGA has changed the Republican Party, and we're not going back."
Since winning the presidency in 2016, Trump has abandoned long-held Republican positions on issues such as free trade, broadened the party's appeal among working-class voters and often placed personal loyalty above ideological orthodoxy.
His supporters largely embraced an "America First" agenda skeptical of alliances, foreign interventions and international institutions, elevating economic nationalism and restrictive immigration policies into defining features of the party.
But with Trump's approval rating at a record low amid dissatisfaction over the war in Iran and the rising cost of living, some party officials, activists and conservative scholars say Republicans may face pressure to adjust policy priorities, even if the core ethos of Trumpism endures.
No Republicans interviewed for this story expect a return to the interventionist foreign policy and free-market orthodoxy of former Presidents George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan. Instead, they see Trump’s hardline approach to immigration, skepticism of free trade and distrust of institutions continuing, alongside a greater focus on courting working-class voters with a populist message.
The biggest debates, they said, are likely to center on whether Trump went too far with his aggressive use of tariffs and military interventions in Iran and Venezuela. The six-month-old war in Iran, which has cost the lives of 18 U.S. service members, could become a point of contention because it conflicts with Trump’s campaign pledge to avoid new foreign wars.
Oren Cass, founder and chief economist of the conservative think tank American Compass, sees a post-Trump party adopting a tougher trade posture toward China and a more restrained foreign policy, among other shifts.
"I have always thought of it as you have a Trump era, and then there is going to be this huge debate about what comes next," Cass said, arguing that while Trump remade the party, his policies never represented a consistent governing philosophy.
CLAIMING TRUMP'S MANTLE
Many Republicans see Vance, 42, as the leading heir to Trump's political movement, citing his youth and roots in the party's populist, anti-establishment wing, where much of the party's energy now resides. Rubio, 55, is a more conventional Republican politician and a foreign-policy hawk.
"I think he has positioned himself really well to be that kind of generational leader the party needs," Stefano Forte, president of the New York Young Republican Club, said of Vance.
Matthew Dallek, a professor at the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management, said the two men could steer the party in different directions.
Vance would likely carry forward Trump’s populist agenda, from protectionist trade policies to culture-war politics, while Rubio, by contrast, might seek to soften tariffs, ease tensions with allies and temper some of Trump’s harder-edged policies, including on immigration, he said.
Beyond Vance and Rubio, other Republicans are jockeying for position. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who is scheduled to speak in Dallas, told MS NOW in an interview last month that Republicans were not unified behind Vance and that the party was headed for a broader debate over its direction and priorities.
For now, discussions about a post-Trump future remain largely behind closed doors, away from the main stage at the Dallas convention, where Trump will be front and center on both Wednesday and Thursday as Republicans seek to harness his political appeal ahead of November.
A disappointing election result, however, could accelerate jockeying among Trump's would-be heirs and thrust the party into a more public debate about its future.
(Reporting by Nathan Layne in Dallas and Nandita Bose in Washington; Editing by Ross Colvin and Howard Goller)
